Short Term Forecast: 2006-2007

The following chart is the forecast for the Canadian economy. For an updated version, please visit the Conference Board of Canada website. http://www.conferenceboard.ca

Canadian Economic Forecast Forecasted Mar 16, 2006
	2006	2007
GDP at Market Prices (Millions $ 97)	1,192,279	1,229,380
GDP % change	3.0	3.1
Consumer Price Index (1992=1.0)	1.297	1.320
Total Employment ('000s)	16,415	16,693
Unemployment Rate	6.8	7.0
Housing Starts ('000s)	213	189
Exchange Rate (Canada/U.S.)	0.867	0.852

Canadian Long Term Forecast: 2006-2021

Source: The Conference Board of Canada

This annual economic forecast presents the long-term national outlook.

Document Highlights:

• Canada’s economic growth will ease steadily over the forecast period, averaging annual compound growth of just 2.1 per cent between 2021 and 2026.
• The aging of Canada’s massive baby-boom will be the underlying demographic force affecting labour supply and demand for goods and services.
• Rapidly developing economies, and their thirst for raw materials, will help keep energy and other commodity prices elevated.
• While opportunities from developing countries abound, the U.S. will continue to be our most important export market.
• Stable inflation and only modest interest rate increases will serve to maintain the loonie near its current equilibrium level.
• A more skilled and educated workforce and more intensive machinery and equipment investment will help lift growth in labour productivity.

Provincial Long Term Forecast: 2005-2025

Source: The Conference Board of Canada

• Ontario and Alberta will occupy the two top spots over the long term,
• Ontario from a favourable demographic outlook due to sturdy international migration and Alberta from the development of the oil sands, where an amazing $100 billion in investment is expected to expand the industry.
• Over the long term, real GDP growth will average 2.3 per cent in British Columbia and 2 per cent in Prince Edward Island, as the provinces become preferred retirement havens for baby boomers.
• Declining population and depletion of oil reserves will weigh heavily on Newfoundland and Labrador over 2005–25.
• Population will shrink in every year of the forecast in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, impeding real economic growth significantly over the long term.
• Quebec can expect average annual growth of 2 per cent over the forecast, as major capital outlays in electricity-generating capacity and sound export activity compensate for tepid population growth.
• Population growth will hold steady over the forecast period in Manitoba due to more favourable immigration. Saskatchewan will experience very weak population gains over 2005–25.